Recurring cycles of power dynamics

Abstract

Coined by George Modelski, Long Cycle Theory asserts that international system undergoes cyclical transitions marked by phases of global war, ascendancy, deconstruction and fall of global powers. Historically, Modelski (1978) argues that the rise of Portugal, the Netherlands, Britain, and the United States as world leaders was underpinned by maritime supremacy and control of global trade routes. The paper examines whether China’s naval expansion, control of critical sea routes and expansion of overseas logistical facilities signals an impending transition in world leadership. The study tries to employ a historical-comparative methodology structured in naval power metrics. First, it reconstructs four hegemonic cycles, mentioned by Modelski, and identifies key indicators of maritime dominance during each of the ascending long power’s period. These indicators will be asserted on historical data and military archives hence, the study will be able to build a comparative framework to evaluate contemporary trends. The findings will reveal whether China will achieve supremacy in the global system in the next cycle, whether a different country will take the lead, or whether the long cycle itself will be disrupted.