Climate migration and environmental pressure: A global panel analysis of the migration–emissions nexus

Abstract

The aim of this study is to analyse the relationship between climate change and migration during the 2000–2024 period in selected countries (Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Ethiopia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Somalia, Chad and the Philippines) that exhibit high vulnerability to climate change, are prone to natural disasters and face various economic and social vulnerabilities. Within this scope, the relationships between climate change and the variables of net migration, population, energy consumption and economic growth were tested using panel data analysis methods. According to the findings of the study, a bidirectional causal relationship was identified between migration and climate change. A unidirectional causal relationship was identified from economic growth to climate change. Regarding the relationship between energy consumption and climate change, a unidirectional causal relationship was identified from carbon emissions to energy consumption. Furthermore, a bidirectional causal relationship was found between population and climate change. Regarding the relationship between migration and economic growth, a causal relationship was found from migration to economic growth, while no significant relationship was found from economic growth to migration. No causal relationship was found between energy consumption and migration. Regarding the relationship between population and migration, a unidirectional causal relationship from population to migration was identified.