Between pragmatism and populism: JDP, securitization, and the limits of the contagion effect in Türkiye-EU migration politics

Abstract

Over the last two decades, populism and migration have become two of the most closely intertwined issues in comparative politics. Mainstream literature, especially within European contexts, conceptualizes their relationship through exclusion, securitization, and nationalism. Right‑wing populist parties such as the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), the Rassemblement National (France), and the Lega (Italy) exemplify how anti‑immigrant rhetoric serves as a core mobilizing axis of populist politics (Mudde, 2019; Wodak, 2021). This trend has led to what is often described as the “contagion effect,” the spread of exclusionary migration narratives across party systems, normalizing anti‑immigrant sentiment within mainstream politics (Bale et al., 2010; Mondon & Winter, 2020; Mudde, 2007). Yet much of this analysis remains Eurocentric, overlooking cases that differ from securitized and exclusionary populism (Ataç et al., 2017; Caviedes, 2015).