Russia’s contested naval power in the Black Sea and Eastern Mediterranean: A security study with Türkiye’s pivotal role

Abstract

For centuries, the Black Sea and Eastern Mediterranean have served as critical theatres of great power competition, where control over maritime corridors translates directly into geopolitical influence. Russia’s historical pursuit of “warm-water ports” - from Catherine the Great’s annexation of Crimea to Putin’s 2014 seizure of the peninsula - continues to drive its naval strategy, yet faces unprecedented constraints in the contemporary security environment. The convergence of NATO’s eastern expansion, Ukraine’s asymmetric warfare capabilities, and Türkiye’s enforcement of the Montreux Convention have created a complex security dilemma that challenges traditional notions of sea power.