Assessing regionness in Central Asia: A conceptual framework for Post-Soviet regionalism and future projections

Abstract

This study develops a conceptual testbed to analyze regional integration by applying the theory of “regionness” to Central Asia’s post-2000 trajectory. Combining theoretical frameworks with empirical data from international organizations, we evaluate the region’s political, economic, and security dynamics through five dimensions of regional cohesion: geographic interdependence, institutionalization, identity formation, conflict management, and actor networks. Regional integration by applying the theory of “regionness” to Central Asia’s post-2000 trajectory. Combining theoretical frameworks with empirical data from international organizations, we evaluate the region’s political, economic, and security dynamics through five dimensions of regional cohesion: geographic interdependence, institutionalization, identity formation, conflict management, and actor networks. Findings reveal Central Asia remains a “regional complex” dominated by external influences and fragmented cooperation, where authoritarian governance, water disputes, and elite resistance constrain deeper integration. Despite shared historical and cultural ties, the region’s potential is undermined by Soviet legacies—including arbitrary borders and infrastructure dependencies—and by great-power competition (Russia, China, EU). Recent developments (e.g., rising intraregional trade and climate cooperation initiatives) suggest nascent progress, but institutional weaknesses persist. Projections to 2030 highlight two potential pathways: continued stagnation under entrenched elites or transformative growth through political reforms and infrastructure connectivity. The study concludes with policy recommendations for strengthening regionalism, emphasizing digitalization, youth engagement, and balanced external partnerships. By bridging theoretical rigor with actionable insights, this framework offers a replicable model for assessing regionalization in other contested geographies.