Syria: Unfinished uprising, structural persistence and the recalibration of conflict mechanisms under Ahmed al-Sharaa

Abstract

This study examines the evolving mechanisms that transformed Syria’s 2011 popular uprising into internal conflict, arguing that these dynamics, though reconfigured, persist under the leadership of Ahmed al-Sharaa in 2025. Drawing on Adrian Florea’s “Contentious Politics Ap proach”, the analysis focuses on three interlinked processes: erosion of legitimacy, radicalisation, and militarisation. The empirical foundation of the study is based on semi-structured interviews conducted with 32 individuals, including civilian actors formerly affiliated with the Syrian National Coalition and military personnel who later served in the Syrian National Army, previously known as the Free Syrian Army. The sample was selected to reflect variation in gender, age, regional origin, professional background, and socio-economic status. Data were analysed using MAXQDA 24 An alytics Pro, enabling both thematic coding and statistical mapping of participant narratives. The findings reveal how structural conditions, particularly socio-economic exclusion and authoritarian resilience, continue to drive identity politicisation, which in turn facilitates radicalisation and mil itarisation through sustained regional and global interventions. By situating Syria’s post-uprising trajectory within broader debates on post-conflict reconstruction, rebel victory, and civil conflict, the study contributes to a deeper understanding of how legitimacy crises and external entrench ment perpetuate cycles of instability in fragment ed state contexts.